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NBA Picks: Boston Celtics Should Get Close Win vs Toronto Raptors

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Friday, November 16, 2018

Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics

The odds favor the Celtics, and the sims are solidly on the Celtics as well. The projected score is Celtics 112 and Raptors 110, and Boston is winning 55% of simulations. The Celtics are -125 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 56 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-3 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 104 and the Celtics 98 ppg. The computer would set the spread at BOS -2. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -1.5. The Celtics have a record of 5-5-0 as a favorite. The Raptors have a record of 13-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Raptors have the ATS edge head to head going 7-2-0 vs the Celtics. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -2.4 and they won by an average of 6.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors 214 106.2 109.7 47% 45% 104.3 (6 Wins)
Boston Celtics -1.5 107.8 111.6 53% 55% 97.9 (3 Wins)

VEGAS is the expected score based on the point spread and over/under, PROJ is the average score from computer simulations, ML% is the implied probability of the money lines adjusted for the juice, SIM% is the percentage of simulations each team won, PAST H2H is the average score from recent head to head matchups

Visit Sportsline to get the latest lines, updated projections, best values, and picks from some of the top Vegas handicappers. We also have the best player projections for Season Long and Daily Fantasy players.

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Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers

This is about as close a match as you can get and in sims neither team holds a significant edge, while the Vegas odds favor the Pacers. The projected score is Pacers 110 and Heat 108, with Indiana winning 54% of the time. At -200 on the moneyline, the Pacers implied proability to win is 67 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Pacers averaged 105 points per game and the Heat 104. The projection based point spread is IND -1.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -5. The Pacers have a record of 31-17-1 as a favorite. The Heat have a record of 26-21-4 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 4 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Heat -0.2 but the Pacers won by an average of 0.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Miami Heat 212 103.5 108.4 36% 46% 104.5 (4 Wins)
Indiana Pacers -5.0 108.5 109.8 64% 54% 105.4 (4 Wins)

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Utah Jazz vs Philadelphia 76ers

The odds favor the 76ers, and the sims are solidly on the 76ers as well. The projected score is 76ers 112 and Jazz 103, and Philadelphia is winning 71% of simulations. At -148 on the moneyline, the 76ers implied proability to win is 60 percent. The current moneylines are holding steady compared to the opening lines which means bettors, so far, feel like these odds are fair. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games, the Jazz averaged 98 and the 76ers 94 ppg. The projection based point spread is PHI -8.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -3. The 76ers have a record of 4-6-0 as a favorite. The Jazz have a record of 23-23-0 as an underdog. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Jazz -4.8 and they won by an average of 3.5 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Utah Jazz 216 106.5 103.4 42% 29% 98.0 (2 Wins)
Philadelphia 76ers -3.0 109.5 111.8 58% 71% 94.5 (2 Wins)

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Brooklyn Nets vs Washington Wizards

The simulations disagree with the Vegas odds who have the Nets as betting underdogs. They are slight favorites in simulations. The projected score is Nets 110 and Wizards 109, with Brooklyn being given a 51% chance of winning. The moneyline for the Wizards is -286 which translates to 74 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Wizards to win. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Wizards going 5-2. In these games the Wizards averaged 111 points per game and the Nets 109. The projection based point spread is BKN -1. More of the action seems to be on the Wizards with the Vegas line moving from -6.5 to -7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Wizards are 22-39-1. As an underdog, the Nets are 6-6-0. The Nets have been better against the spread than straight up vs the Wizards. The Nets are 5-2-0 against the spread vs the Wizards. The Wizards were favored by an average of -7.6 points in these games and they won by an average of 2.7 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Brooklyn Nets 222.5 107.8 110.2 29% 51% 108.7 (2 Wins)
Washington Wizards -7.0 114.7 109.6 71% 49% 111.4 (5 Wins)

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Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies

The simulations have this as an even matchup, while the Vegas odds clearly favor the Grizzlies. The projected score is Grizzlies 110 and Kings 109, with Memphis winning 52% of the time. The moneyline for the Grizzlies is -309 which translates to 76 percent (chance of winning). The moneyline has moved from its opening value which indicates people are wagering more money on the Grizzlies to win. They both have 4 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Grizzlies averaged 101 points per game and the Kings 94. The computer would set the spread at MEM -1. More of the action seems to be on the Grizzlies with the Vegas line moving from -6.5 to -7. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Grizzlies are 11-16-0. As an underdog, the Kings are 8-4-1. The Grizzlies are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Kings. The Grizzlies were favored by an average of -3.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.9 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings 214 103.5 109.5 26% 48% 93.9 (4 Wins)
Memphis Grizzlies -7.0 110.5 110.3 74% 52% 100.8 (4 Wins)

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Portland Trail Blazers vs Minnesota Timberwolves

This is basically a coin flip with neither team being heavily favored in simulations, while the Vegas odds favor the Trail Blazers. The projected score is Trail Blazers 112 and Timberwolves 111, and Portland is winning 50% of simulations. The Trail Blazers are -121 favorites to win which has an implied probability of 55 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. In recent seasons this has been a lopsided matchup with the Trail Blazers going 6-3. In these games, the Trail Blazers averaged 108 and the Timberwolves 102 ppg. The computer would set this game as a pick ’em. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening MIN +1.5. The Trail Blazers have a record of 35-25-3 as a favorite. The Timberwolves have a record of 5-6-0 as an underdog. Their ATS record is similar to their straight up record against each other. The Trail Blazers are 8-1-0 against the spread vs the Timberwolves. The average point spread in these games was Trail Blazers -0.9 and they won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Portland Trail Blazers 222.5 112.0 111.8 53% 50% 108.1 (6 Wins)
Minnesota Timberwolves +1.5 110.5 111.9 47% 50% 102.1 (3 Wins)

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New York Knicks vs New Orleans Pelicans

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Pelicans to win the game. The projected score is Pelicans 119 and Knicks 113, and New Orleans is winning 66% of simulations. At -541 on the moneyline, the Pelicans implied proability to win is 84 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Pelicans have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games the Pelicans averaged 110 points per game and the Knicks 103. The projection based point spread is NO -6.5. Betting action seems to be evenly split and the line has not moved from its opening -10. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pelicans are 33-20-1. As an underdog, the Knicks are 3-5-2. Their straight up head-to-head record is the same as their ATS records. The Pelicans are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Knicks. The Pelicans were favored by an average of -2 points in these games and they won by an average of 7.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
New York Knicks 228 109.0 112.7 18% 34% 102.8 (1 Win)
New Orleans Pelicans -10.0 119.0 119.4 82% 66% 110.0 (3 Wins)

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Chicago Bulls vs Milwaukee Bucks

Both the simulations and the betting lines are strongly on the Bucks to win the game. The projected score is Bucks 116 and Bulls 104, and Milwaukee is winning 76% of simulations. At -1667 on the moneyline, the Bucks implied proability to win is 94 percent. The betting public is not putting more action on one side vs the other (yet) based on the lack of line movement. The Bucks have the recent head-to-head edge going 5-3. In these games the Bucks averaged 107 points per game and the Bulls 100. The projection based point spread is MIL -11.5. Action seems to be evenly split and the betting line has not moved from its opening -13.5. The Bucks have a record of 5-4-1 as a favorite. The Bulls have a record of 8-6-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Bucks are 5-3-0 against the spread vs the Bulls. The Bucks were favored by an average of -2.5 points in these games and they won by an average of 6.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Chicago Bulls 224.5 105.5 104.3 9% 24% 100.2 (3 Wins)
Milwaukee Bucks -13.5 119.0 115.9 91% 76% 107.0 (5 Wins)

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Saturday, November 17, 2018

LA Clippers vs Brooklyn Nets

The current simulations slightly favor the Nets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Nets 115 and Clippers 114, and Brooklyn is winning 52% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Clippers have the recent head-to-head edge going 3-1. In these games, the Clippers averaged 122 and the Nets 111 ppg. The computer would set the spread at BKN -1. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Nets have a record of 11-11-0 as a favorite. The Clippers have a record of 23-28-0 as an underdog. They both covered the spread 2 times in their last few matchups. The average point spread in these games was Clippers -9.9 and they won by an average of 10.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
LA Clippers 114.2 48% 121.5 (3 Wins)
Brooklyn Nets 115.4 52% 110.8 (1 Win)

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Philadelphia 76ers vs Charlotte Hornets

The current simulations favor the Hornets, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Hornets 118 and 76ers 112, and Charlotte is winning 63% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The 76ers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-0 record. In these games, the 76ers averaged 117 and the Hornets 107 ppg. The computer would set the spread at CHA -5.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Hornets are 28-23-0. As an underdog, the 76ers are 15-16-2. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The 76ers have the ATS edge head to head going 4-2-0 vs the Hornets. The average point spread in these games was 76ers -4.5 and they won by an average of 9.8 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Philadelphia 76ers 111.9 37% 117.2 (6 Wins)
Charlotte Hornets 117.5 63% 107.3 (0 Wins)

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Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Pacers are favored. The projected score is Pacers 115 and Hawks 102, with Indiana winning 78% of the time. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Pacers have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. In these games the Pacers averaged 103 points per game and the Hawks 94. The projection based point spread is IND -13. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Pacers have a record of 31-17-1 as a favorite. The Hawks have a record of 6-8-0 as an underdog. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Pacers have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Hawks. The Pacers were favored by an average of -5.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 8.7 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Atlanta Hawks 102.4 22% 94.3 (2 Wins)
Indiana Pacers 115.3 78% 103.0 (5 Wins)

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Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Nuggets are favored. The projected score is Nuggets 118 and Pelicans 112, with Denver winning 66% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Nuggets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-2 record. In these games, the Nuggets averaged 118 and the Pelicans 114 ppg. The projection based point spread is DEN -6.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Pelicans are 33-20-1. As an underdog, the Nuggets are 16-14-1. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Nuggets have the ATS edge head to head going 5-3-0 vs the Pelicans. The average point spread in these games was Nuggets -2.5 and they won by an average of 4.1 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Denver Nuggets 118.4 66% 118.2 (6 Wins)
New Orleans Pelicans 111.8 34% 114.1 (2 Wins)

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LA Lakers vs Orlando Magic

The current simulations favor the Lakers, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Lakers 116 and Magic 108, with Los Angeles winning 67% of the latest sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. They both have 2 wins head-to-head in recent seasons. In these games the Magic averaged 110 points per game and the Lakers 104. The computer would set the spread at LAL -7.5. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Magic have a record of 5-12-0 as a favorite. The Lakers have a record of 34-34-0 as an underdog. The Magic are 3-1-0 against the spread vs the Lakers. The average point spread in these games was Lakers -1.9 but the Magic won by an average of 6 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
LA Lakers 115.5 67% 103.5 (2 Wins)
Orlando Magic 107.8 33% 109.5 (2 Wins)

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Utah Jazz vs Boston Celtics

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Celtics are favored. The projected score is Celtics 108 and Jazz 102, and Boston is winning 65% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. Head-to-head, the Celtics are 3-2. In these games the Celtics averaged 107 points per game and the Jazz 106. The computer would set the spread at BOS -6.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Celtics are 5-5-0. As an underdog, the Jazz are 23-23-0. They have the same ATS records as they do straight up head-to-head. The Celtics have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Jazz. The average point spread in these games was Jazz -2.5 but the Celtics won by an average of 0.4 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Utah Jazz 101.7 35% 106.4 (2 Wins)
Boston Celtics 108.2 65% 106.8 (3 Wins)

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Toronto Raptors vs Chicago Bulls

When Vegas lines are not posted it means there are factors that need to be clarified before we can be 100% confident in any forecast. Currently, the Raptors are winning a majority of simulations. The projected score is Raptors 119 and Bulls 108, with Toronto being given a 73% chance of winning. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Raptors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 5-2 record. In these games, the Raptors averaged 117 and the Bulls 111 ppg. The projection based point spread is TOR -10. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Bulls have a record of 6-4-0 as a favorite. The Raptors have a record of 13-8-0 as an underdog. While they may be 2-5 straight up in previous matchups, the Bulls have been better against the spread. The Bulls have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Raptors. The average point spread in these games was Raptors -7.1 and they won by an average of 5.7 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Toronto Raptors 118.7 73% 116.6 (5 Wins)
Chicago Bulls 108.5 27% 110.9 (2 Wins)

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Sacramento Kings vs Houston Rockets

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Rockets are favored. The projected score is Rockets 116 and Kings 110, and Houston is winning 64% of the sims. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Rockets have been dominating this matchup recently with a 6-1 record. In these games the Rockets averaged 111 points per game and the Kings 100. The projection based point spread is HOU -6. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Rockets are 4-7-0. As an underdog, the Kings are 8-4-1. While they may be 1-6 straight up vs the Rockets, the Kings have been better against the spread. The Kings have the ATS edge head to head going 4-3-0 vs the Rockets. The Rockets were favored by an average of -8.1 points in these games and they won by an average of 11 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Sacramento Kings 110.5 36% 100.0 (1 Win)
Houston Rockets 116.5 64% 111.0 (6 Wins)

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Golden State Warriors vs Dallas Mavericks

The current simulations favor the Warriors, but Vegas lines are not posted which means there are things that could radically change the forecast. The projected score is Warriors 115 and Mavericks 112, and Golden State is winning 57% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Warriors have been dominating this matchup recently with a 7-0 record. In these games, the Warriors averaged 118 and the Mavericks 101 ppg. The projection based point spread is GS -3. The point spread is not posted, so consider this projected line to be tentative. The Mavericks have a record of 11-16-0 as a favorite. The Warriors have a record of 4-8-0 as an underdog. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Warriors have the ATS edge head to head going 5-2-0 vs the Mavericks. The average point spread in these games was Warriors -12.4 and they won by an average of 17.3 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Golden State Warriors 114.9 57% 118.1 (7 Wins)
Dallas Mavericks 111.8 43% 100.9 (0 Wins)

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns

The Vegas lines have not posted yet which means there are some major unknown factors that could impact our forecast. But in the current simulations the Thunder are favored. The projected score is Thunder 113 and Suns 107, and Oklahoma City is winning 65% of simulations. With no odds (and no line movement), we cannot determine where Vegas oddsmakers and the betting public action is going. The Thunder have been dominating this matchup recently with a 4-1 record. In these games, the Thunder averaged 115 and the Suns 106 ppg. The computer would set the spread at OKC -6.5. This is a tentative line with the betting line not even posted yet. Coming into this game as a favorite, the Suns are 6-12-1. As an underdog, the Thunder are 12-11-0. Their ATS history mirrors their straight up record against each other. The Thunder have the ATS edge head to head going 3-2-0 vs the Suns. The average point spread in these games was Thunder -9.7 and they won by an average of 9.2 points.

EXPECTATIONS ODDS VEGAS PROJ ML% SIM% PAST H2H
Oklahoma City Thunder 113.3 65% 114.8 (4 Wins)
Phoenix Suns 106.6 35% 105.6 (1 Win)

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