NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The Celtics next 5 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 4-1 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 13.1%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the 76ers by one game. With a -0.36 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Pistons by half a game. With a +0.68 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Celtics are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Celtics are playing 7 games, traveling 9540 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 9-7 the Celtics are behind their money line projected win total of 9.9 wins. They have 3 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 0 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 4-5 road record is -12% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is under their expected 61% win percentage. We have simulated the Celtics playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 63.9% of the time (#3 in the league). Their peak sim% was 68.6% back on 10/19.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.5% (#27 in League). They average 105.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.7. On the road they average 105.2 (106.3 expected), and at home 105.7 ppg (109.5 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 52.4 true FG% (#2 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 55.3% in their last 7 games. They allow 102.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 103.9. They are allowing 105.2 (104.6 expected) on the road, and at home 99.1 ppg (102.9 expected).
REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.8 per game (#18 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.6 per game (#7 in league).
Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Celtics’ next game. They are -2 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Celtics are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.7% chance of winning it all. On 10/19 they had a 17.5% chance before dropping to 4.8% on 11/12. Their current chances are at 10.8%. They have a 12.4% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (92%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 76% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 48.5%. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the East (7/4) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 26.3% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
- Remaining Opponents’ Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #3 Easiest
- Season-to-Date Opponents’ Win Percentage: 54% #8 Toughest
Celtics’ Championship Forecast Changes
|Date||Projected Wins||Playoff%||East Champ||NBA Champ|
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|Rest of Season Leaders||FP Per Game||Own % and Value|
|Kyrie Irving||37.4||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #9)|
|Al Horford||28.7||99% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #14)|
|Jayson Tatum||25.7||100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #17)|
|Gordon Hayward||25||98% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #22)|
|Marcus Morris||18.1||64% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #53)|
|Jaylen Brown||17.5||63% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #56)|